Lagosians will massively vote for Jonathan

An ex Chairman of the Governing Council of Michael Imodu National
Institute for Labour Studies, Prof. Adesegun Ojo, said with confidence
that President Goodluck Jonathan will win in Lagos State in the March
28 presidential poll.
He added, the Peoples Democratic Party has been winning the
presidential election in the state despite being an opposition
stronghold. Jonathan's main opponent, retired Maj. Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari's party, the All Progressives Congress, controls Lagos.
Ojo said he expected Jonathan to win Lagos in the Saturday election by
a margin narrower than in 2011.
The former chairman commented, "The question, therefore, is whether
the All Progressives Congress will receive 25 per cent of the votes in
Lagos. This is critical.
"In the 2011 presidential election, Jonathan/PDP received 1,282,688
while Buhari received 189,983; Ribadu, 427,203 and Shekarau, 8,341.
Let us assume that all those who did not vote for Jonathan then will
now vote Buhari this time, the expected vote could be 625,527 while
Jonathan's vote remain the same.
"He further said that Another scenario of Buhari to win, we will
need an increase in the number of voters and probably need more than
100 per cent increase for Buhari to receive more votes than Jonathan
and assuming that all those new voters will be voting for Buhari and
none voting for Jonathan (while Jonathan voters remain the same). Or,
on the contrary, 50 per cent of Jonathan voters decide not to vote for
him and all voting Buhari while there is no increase in the number of
voters.
"We know this is not happening and there is probability of 10 per cent
to 20 per cent change either way. If that is the case, Jonathan should
be expected to win in Lagos."
He noted that the APC candidate was no longer a viable alternative
that he was in 2011 when the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria
fielded Nuhu Ribadu as its presidential flag bearer.
According to Ojo, although the PDP may have ceded ground because of
its intra- party crisis in the past few years, Jonathan was the first
president of Nigeria to ensure that the country is well managed and
its citizens are satisfied.
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