APC picks presidential candidate today in Lagos

NO fewer than 8,000 delegates are to pick today the All Progressives
Congress (APC) presidential candidate in Lagos.
The five presidential aspirants are former Head of State Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari (a three-time presidential candidate); former Vice
President Atiku Abubakar (ex-presidential candidate and aspirant);
Governor Rochas Okorocha (ex-presidential aspirant); Governor Rabiu
Kwankwaso and pharmacist-turned newspaper publisher Dr. Sam
Nda-Isaiah.
The presidential primary election is significant for six reasons.
They are:
•unique and historic merger of the party;
•shape of the party which has made the progressives to cohabit with
the conservatives;
•increasing socio-economic problems and desperate desire for change in
the country;
•urgent need for alternative to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP), which has ruled since 1999; and
•whether or not the APC coalition (a party of heavyweights and ex-this
or ex-that) will sink its differences to produce a candidate without
breaking up.
Although the party threw its presidential ticket open, indications
emerged last night that the delegates might support power shift to the
North.
The development has significantly left the race for the four Northern
aspirants namely Buhari (North-West), Atiku (North-East), Kwankwaso
(North-West) and Nda-Isaiah (North-Central).
The choice of the candidate is likely to be determined by many
factors, including the outcome of the primaries at the state level,
forces from the North, antecedents of the aspirants; their political
and personal pedigree; and the influence of the 14 APC governors,
who control party structures in their states.
Other indices which may shape the results of the primaries, are the
voting power of statutory and elected delegates, including members of
the Board of Trustees of APC; members of the National and State
Executive Committees of the party; and members of the National
Assembly and State Houses of Assembly.
Also, some of the national leaders of APC will play a crucial role in
deciding the flag bearer.
These leaders include Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, former
Interim National Chairman Chief Bisi Akande, National Chairman Chief
John Odigie-Oyegun, National Secretary Mai Mala Buni, Senator Bukola
Saraki, ex-Governors Danjuma Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Bukar Abba
Ibrahim, George Akume and Sani Yerima.
Others are Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, Alh. Kawu Baraje, Mr. Audu Ogbeh,
Senator Shuaibu Lawan, former Governors Segun Oni, Olagunsoye Oyinlola
and Adamu Aliero, among others.
But a highly-placed source, who spoke in confidence, said: "If you
look at Article 12(1) of the Constitution of APC, the governors, APC
leaders who control state structure, and members of the National and
State Houses of Assembly will wield electoral powers to determine our
flag bearer.
"With 14 out of the 36 states under the control of APC governors, any
aspirant who secures the nod of these governors can conveniently win
the election at the convention.
"Whether we like it or not, the governors seem to hold the ace."
A document obtained by our correspondent last night listed members of
the Electoral College as follows: all members of BOT, National
Chairman and all members of the National Executive Committee(NEC);
serving and Presidents and Vice-Presidents who are members of the
party; serving and past governors; past and serving deputy governors
who are members of the party; serving and past members of the National
Assembly, who are members of the party; serving and past Speakers,
Deputy Speakers and other principal officers of State Houses of
Assembly who are members of the party; and the members of the State
Working Committee including those of the FCT.
Those eligible to vote also include all party chairmen and secretaries
of all the local government areas and local council development
authorities (LCDAs); all elected chairmen of local government councils
and LCDAs who are members of the party; and three elected delegates at
least one of which must be a woman from each LGA and LCDA.
As at press time, the aspirants have started intense horse-trading
with their foot-soldiers relocating to Lagos where the convention is
holding.
Going by the composition of the electoral college, the hot spots with
huge votes are Kano(44 LGAs); Lagos (20 LGAs); Oyo (33 LGAs); Osun(30
LGAs); Borno (27 LGAs); Imo (27 LGAs) Sokoto(23 LGAs); Rivers (23
LGAs); Ogun (20); Edo(18); Yobe (17) Kwara(16); Zamfara(14 LGAs); and
Nasarawa(13).
Another party source added: "Though the 22 other states are important,
they do not command huge volume of votes like those ones where APC is
controlling the Executive, the Local Governments, the Legislature and
other statutory delegates.
"For instance, there is no APC government again in Adamawa State,
unlike when ex-Governor Murtala Nyako was in charge of the state. This
may be to the disadvantage of ex-VP Atiku Abubakar, whose home base
support is weak.
"In Buhari's home state of Katsina, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
is not only in control of the state, it recently swept the Local
Government poll in all the 34 local governments in the state. The APC
boycotted the election. With this scenario, Buhari is not in a
position of strength at the home front.
"Sam Nda-Isaiah is also from a PDP-controlled Niger State with 25
local governments. He is also constrained from the outset due to
limited number of delegates from his state who can vote for him in
sympathy.
"But Kwankwaso and Rochas Okorocha are solid at home because they are
in total charge of all statutory and elected delegates in their
states. They, therefore, reach out to other delegates from a voting
premise."
The real contest among the aspirants is in their ability to woo
delegates from all the states.
The Chairman of the National Convention Committee (NCC), Dr. Kayode
Fayemi, has, however, assured of a credible election at the
convention.
Fayemi said: "I have no doubt in my mind. That is why we have a very
huge task on our hands as the convention committee. I am reasonably
convinced that we have serious minded aspirants. And once we do our
job in terms of the process being credible, transparent and it is seen
to be transparent by all and sundry, everybody would accept the
outcome. That is our own belief.
"But we also have post-convention conflict management mechanisms.
There must be something in it for all players. We want to win an
election; the presidency of Nigeria is not the only position. People
want to serve and those contesting on our platform are politicians of
extensive credible experience. I would like to think that is it
service that is propelling them.
"Of course they want to be president but the presidential candidature
is not available due to the fact that they did not win the primaries
there are other ways they can serve and I believe they will all want
to live up to their undertaking.

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